Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
